Stephen Gutowski, founder of The Reload, said there are two things that will determine the future of American gun politics on NPR’s Weekend Edition Sunday.

He said the recent increase in murder during the covid pandemic may lead to increased support for gun restrictions.

“Whether or not this murder spike that we’ve seen over the last year and a half or so continues to pick up steam and we get back to the violence levels we had in the 1990s because we’re still – even with this spike, we’re still at near historic lows when it comes to gun violence and murder in the United States,” he told host Lulu Garcia-Navarro. “But if it continues on, that, obviously, could change the conversation around guns in America.”

However, at the same time, the survey of new gun owners could decrease appetite for new gun laws, especially gun bans.

“All those new gun owners, especially ones from traditionally Democratic demographics, how they progress in their gun ownership is going to make a big difference five, 10 years down the line on how not just the Republican Party deals with guns but how the Democratic Party deals with it,” he said. “If they become less willing to vote for politicians who advocate stricter gun laws, you could see the Democratic Party adapt to that new reality and move back towards the center on the issue.”

You can listen to the full interview below: