Americans aren’t running to the gun store as November 5th arrives.

October 2024 saw a five percent decline in FBI background checks on gun-sales-related transactions from the same time last year, according to an industry analysis. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) said last month saw about 1.3 million sales checks run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) compared to 1.37 million the previous October.

That reverses the slight upward trend from the previous several months.

Despite a presidential election with a stark contrast on gun policy between the two major party candidates, the numbers indicate Americans aren’t motivated to buy more guns. That could indicate Americans aren’t highly concerned about the outcome of the election or potential new restrictions that could come as a result. It could also be the result of a continuing downturn in gun sales following unprecedented sales levels during 2020, when the pandemic, controversy over the murder of George Floyd, and resulting rioting combined to drive a record number of Americans to arm themselves.

Sales numbers reported by Ruger on Thursday, one of the few publicly traded American gun companies, show a similarly stagnant story. The company’s net sales were up just one percent year-over-year during its most recent quarter. Diluted earnings per share dropped from 42 cents to 28 over the same period.

NSSF’s October report shows background check numbers have fallen back into the slump seen at the beginning of this election year. In May, checks fell by 7.2 percent year-over-year. March and April saw similar declines as well.

Still, October represented the 63rd month in a row to exceed more than a million sales-related background checks. NSSF argued that was an indicator of how important Americans hold their Second Amendment rights.

“Lawful gun ownership continues to be an important factor as Americans cast their ballots for the 2024 elections,” Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, said in a statement. “Law-abiding Americans – by the tens of millions – are quite literally voting with their wallets and investing in their rights. These figures tell elected officials where America stands on support for the Second Amendment.”

NICS checks are considered the best proxy for gun sales because federal law requires licensed gun dealers perform them all on sales to customers. However, they aren’t a one-to-one representation for several reasons. For one, neither federal law nor most states require NICS checks on used gun sales between non-dealers. On the other side of the equation, some concealed carry permits (CCW) can be used in lieu of a NICS check during a sale because one is performed during the permitting process.

The raw NICS numbers put out by the FBI each month include many checks unrelated to gun sales, though. The NSSF uses FBI coding to estimate how many checks are for sales or other purposes in order to give a clearer picture of gun sales.

“The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases,” the group said in a statement. “NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.”