This week, we’re looking at crime data and the unprecedented drop in the murder rate.
That’s why we have Jeff Asher from AH Datalytics back on the show. He has been following and reporting crime data for decades, and he explains how dramatic the downturn in murder is compared to the incredible spike we saw just a few years ago. He said 2023 saw a record drop in murder, and 2024 is on pace to see the same.
Asher discussed how crime stats are calculated, addressed some of the critiques of them, and explained why he believes murder data is especially trustworthy this year. He also noted violent crime and property crime haven’t followed murder. While they, too, have fallen in recent years, they also never saw the same kind of horrendous spike that murder did in 2020 and 2021.
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Plus, Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I recap the Vice Presidential debate, where the candidates at the top of the ticket were asked substantive gun policy questions for the first time all season. We also unpack the latest monthly gun sale data showing a trend of rising sales heading into the election. We wrap up with a discussion on the Massachusetts Governor’s executive action to undermine a grassroots gun-rights campaign as well as a new ACLU brief the group filed in support of a Second Amendment challenge.
2 Responses
One should consider
1) At least, over the long term – that improvements in medical care (specifically trauma and first aid care and First Responsed capability) has resulted in a reduction in deaths? So the same injury that 10 years ago would result in a murder charge are now “only” a grievous assault?
2) More recently – are we seeing more murder charges being reduced to negligent homicide or other lesser charges?
I think the first point is fair to a certain extent. That is part of the reasoning the Gun Violence Archive uses as the basis of the broader way it classifies mass shootings. Of course, medical advancements have more of a long-term effect. It’s unlikely that would explain any differences between 2020 and 2023.
The second point I’m a bit less sure about. I don’t believe the data reported to the FBI is based on the charges that are filed. I think any intentional killing is captured by the data. That’s definitely the case with CDC homicide data. But I’ll have to ask Jeff about how the FBI handles this.