The last time Donald Trump was president, gun sales faltered.
So, this time around, that’s what many people expect to happen. After his first full month in office, that expectation seems to be coming true. Gun sales fell significantly in February, landing at a point below pre-pandemic levels.
As I explain in a member piece, that’s another sign the gun industry is headed into uncertain waters.
Speaking of Donald Trump, he gave the first big speech of his new term this week. You may be surprised at how much of his record-long monologue was dedicated to gun policy.
The Supreme Court also heard a major gun case this week, holding oral arguments in Smith & Wesson v. Mexico that saw one side come away the clear favorite. And I take a look at why the NRA’s upcoming election could solidify reformers’ control over the group.
Plus, Reason Magazine’s J.D. Tuccille joins the podcast to give his view on Kash Patel taking over the ATF. And we have a bunch of stories down in the links, including how one Trump appointee plans to pursue gun cases and Honolulu’s invisible “ghost gun” prosecutions.
Gun Sales Plunge Nine Percent in February
By Stephen Gutowski
Year-over-year background checks on gun sales declined sharply in the first full month of Donald Trump’s second term.
An industry analysis of numbers from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) found Americans bought about 120,000 fewer guns in February 2025 than they did in February 2024. The drop from 1,343,478 checks to 1,222,980 represents about a nine-point decline, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF).
That makes last month the second-worst performing February over the last 13 years, with only 2018 seeing fewer gun-sales-related checks.
Analysis: The Gun Industry Enters Uncertain Territory [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
Gun sales are declining, and there’s reason to think the trend could get worse.
This week, an industry analysis showed gun sales were down nine percent year-over-year in February. That made it one of the worst Februarys in a decade.
It follows a 2024 where sales declined to pre-pandemic levels. If the next four years are anything like the previous four when Donald Trump was president, the slide may just be starting.
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Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Mexico’s Claims Against American Gunmakers
By Jake Fogleman
The nation’s highest court appeared to cast doubt on the viability of Mexico’s liability claims against the American gun industry Tuesday morning.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case Smith & Wesson v. Mexico. The case centers around the foreign government’s allegations that American gunmakers and distributors “aid and abet” cartel violence across the southern border by continuing to produce firearms that may be trafficked to criminals, even if they don’t knowingly sell those guns to the criminals. At issue is whether such claims are viable or if they are precluded by the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), which shields the firearms industry from liability for third-party conduct.
Mexico faced tough questioning from the justices during the hearing. Even the liberal justices seemed suspicious that Mexico’s lawsuit could survive.
Click here to continue reading.
Trump Skips Guns in First Congressional Speech of Second Term
By Stephen Gutowski
President Donald Trump did not mention gun policy once in what turned out to be the longest address to a joint session of Congress in history.
On Tuesday, Trump gave an hour-and-45-minute speech to the House and Senate. While he covered a myriad of topics during the marathon session, he did not make even a passing mention of gun policy.
That continues a trend of Trump downplaying guns in favor of other issues during his campaign and the early months of his second term.
Podcast: Reason Magazine’s J.D. Tuccille on Kash Patel Leading the ATF and FBI
By Stephen Gutowski
This week, we’re looking at the first-of-its-kind move to make the FBI Director the Acting Director of the ATF.
To do that, we’ve got Reason Magazine’s J.D. Tuccille back on the show. He recently wrote about what Kash Patel’s appointment might mean for the gun agency.
You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting app or by clicking here. Video of the episode is available on our YouTube channel.
Plus, Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover the Supreme Court’s latest remand of a case concerning whether convicted felons have any Second Amendment rights. We also discuss major gun manufacturer Daniel Defense’s decision to wade into the ongoing efforts to reform the NRA through board elections. We then briefly touch on the Trump administration’s decision to tap Kash Patel as acting ATF director before wrapping up with a round-up of stories from outside The Reload.
Analysis: The NRA Board Election May Deliver a Fresh Start [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
The National Rifle Association (NRA) just brought one significant donor back into the fold. Or, at least, its reformer faction did.
In a recent video posted to gunmaker Daniel Defense’s social media accounts, founder Marty Daniel said he believes the gun-rights group is primed for a turnaround. He said he’d left the NRA in the wake of its half-decade-long corruption scandal, but now is the right time to return. He encouraged customers to do the same and vote for a slate of reformer candidates in the group’s current election.
How that reformer campaign turns out could determine if the NRA seizes its opportunity for a fresh start.
If you’re a Reload Member, click here to read the rest. If not, buy a membership for exclusive access to this and hundreds of other stories!
Outside The Reload
WA senate passes bill to ban weapons in more public places | Seattle Times | By Shauna Sowersby
That’s it for this week in guns.
I’ll see you all next week.
Thanks,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload
