Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. That much is certain. A lot remains unclear as of this morning, though, especially on gun policy.
I do my best to demystify some of the details. First, by looking at how the gun groups did in the races they spent big on and how the few contests that centered around gun policy turned out. Then, I take a stab at what’s possible, and even likely, to happen under the new Federal Republican trifecta.
Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman explains what happened in Colorado’s gun tax referendum and the recent ruling upholding that state’s under-21 gun ban. Then, I look at what direction gun sales went before the election.
Plus, The Trace’s Jennifer Mascia joins the podcast to discuss what she thinks could happen on guns under a Trump Administration (you can ignore the part speculating on a Harris Administration at this point). We’ll have an updated reaction to the election results on the news update podcast later today, so tune in for that.
We have several more stories down in the links at the end of the email. Also, this is the last week of our Dispatch ad swap. So, take advantage of the 30-day free trial while you can.
How Gun Groups Faired as Trump, GOP Swept to Victory
By Stephen Gutowski
Results are still coming in and will be for a few more days, but many of the topline takeaways from Tuesday’s election are becoming clear as the uncalled races dwindle.
Donald Trump won the Presidency in a convincing fashion, likely winning the popular vote for the first time in three tries. Republicans retook control of the Senate with what’s likely to be a fairly slim majority. They will probably also hold onto control of the House, with even slimmer margins than the Senate.
As of Thursday afternoon, the Associated Press, which has been fastest to call the upper chamber races, has Republicans on track to land between 53 and 55 Senate seats–with Democrat Ruben Gallego currently ahead in Arizona and Jacky Rosen up in Nevada. Thus far, Democrats have been unable to hold their Senate seats in Red states, but Republicans have seen only limited success in the major swing states despite Trump sweeping them. Decision Desk HQ, which has been fastest to call lower chamber races, still has 22 House races up for grabs but projects Republicans will add a single seat to their current paper-thin majority.
The major gun groups that spent big money in those federal races faired very differently, with the National Rifle Association (NRA) outperforming the gun-control groups despite being outraised and outspent.
Analysis: What Trump Could Do on Gun Policy [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
Donald Trump cruised to victory on Tuesday, with the rest of his party trailing behind his pace but likely gaining complete control of Congress anyway. What will the new Republican trifecta be able to pull off on gun policy?
The results of the election are still coming in. We don’t know what the Republican majorities in the Senate of House will look like for sure yet. Technically, we don’t know if Republicans will hold the House–scrap any pro-gun legislative hopes if they don’t–though it seems very likely they will since Republicans are leading in more than enough uncalled races to get at least a slim majority.
The size of those majorities may matter a lot. First off, moving anything gun-related out of the House is going to be difficult with a slim majority that currently includes a few Republicans who have backed gun-control measures in the past. Second, the Senate is unlikely to get 60 votes on any significant pro-gun legislation.
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Colorado Voters Approve New Tax on Firearms, Ammo in Only Major Gun Referendum
By Jake Fogleman
Gun-control supporters can count the Centennial State as one of their few bright spots from election night.
Colorado voters officially approved Proposition KK by a margin of 54.2 percent to 45.8 percent. With 73 percent of the vote recorded, the Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning. The vote will impose a new 6.5 percent state-level excise tax on firearm and ammunition sales, with the revenue earmarked to fund crime victim services.
The outcome of the vote marked a rare win for gun-control advocates Tuesday, as the movement’s preferred candidates failed to retain control of the White House and the US Senate. With little focus on gun policy in most of the top 2024 races, the referendum provides some of the only direct evidence for how guns played as an issue in the election–albeit in a state that has trended bluer over the past decade.
Click here to continue reading.
The Election Fails to Boost Gun Sales as October Comes in Below Last Year
By Stephen Gutowski
Americans aren’t running to the gun store as November 5th arrives.
October 2024 saw a five percent decline in FBI background checks on gun-sales-related transactions from the same time last year, according to an industry analysis. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) said last month saw about 1.3 million sales checks run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) compared to 1.37 million the previous October.
That reverses the slight upward trend from the previous several months.
Federal Appeals Court Upholds Colorado Under-21 Gun Sales Ban
By Jake Fogleman
The Centennial State can once again deny 18-to-20-year-olds the ability to purchase any firearms.
A three-judge panel for the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday overturned a lower court injunction against Colorado’s recently passed gun sales ban for adults under 21. The panel determined that the lower court “abused its discretion” by finding the ban likely unconstitutional. Instead, it ruled that commercial firearm purchases are not covered under the Second Amendment.
Podcast: What Could Trump or Harris Actually Do on Guns? (Ft. The Trace’s Jennifer Mascia)
By Stephen Gutowski
The time to cover the daily developments on the campaign trail is over. Now, it’s time to look ahead at what the realistic expectations on gun policy should be for a potential Trump or Harris administration. To do that, I’ve brought somebody from an outlet on nearly the opposite side of the spectrum from The Reload.
Jennifer Mascia has been a reporter at The Trace, a non-profit publication with ties to Everytown for Gun Safety, since it was founded. She is well-sourced inside the gun-control movement and closely follows gun politics news. She joins the show to help suss out the most likely policies Trump or Harris would pursue and by what means.
You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting app or by clicking here. Video of the episode is available on our YouTube channel.
Plus, Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover the races that national gun groups are pouring their money into. We also discuss an interesting new ruling upholding Washington DC’s magazine ban on unique grounds. We wrap up by covering Kamala Harris’ recent comments in a podcast appearance attempting to cast Donald Trump as a threat to the Second Amendment.
Outside The Reload
Memphis voters OK gun control referenda | Memphis Commercial Appeal | By Lucas Finton
That’s it for this week in guns.
I’ll see you all next week.
Thanks,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload
