The Reload Analysis Newsletter

Members’ Newsletter: What Happened to Trump’s Gun Policy Review?

It has been nearly two months since President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Justice to review all of its gun policies and come up with a plan to potentially reverse them.

But, despite blowing past a 30-day deadline, there’s still no report, let alone concrete action, on the areas the department was supposed to review. Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman takes a look at what has and hasn’t been done on guns so far.

Then, I look at the sweeping new tariffs announced this week and how they might impact the gun industry. While firearms manufacturing is quite strong in America, imported guns and ammo are incredibly popular. Given that even American makers use components and raw materials from outside the US, gun and ammo prices are likely to rise.

Plus, gun-rights lawyer Alan Beck joins the podcast to discuss the history around Americans under 21 buying guns. Stay tuned, too, because we’ll be publishing an in-depth written piece from Beck on the same topic this week.


Handguns on display at the 2024 NRA Annual Meeting
Handguns on display at the 2024 NRA Annual Meeting / Stephen Gutowski

Analysis: Where Is the DOJ’s Second Amendment Report? [Member Exclusive]
By Jake Fogleman

On February 7th, President Donald Trump gave Attorney General Pam Bondi 30 days to finalize and submit a policy plan of action for enacting pro-gun reforms. Nearly two months later, the Trump Administration hasn’t released any plan.

“Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General shall examine all orders, regulations, guidance, plans, international agreements, and other actions of executive departments and agencies (agencies) to assess any ongoing infringements of the Second Amendment rights of our citizens, and present a proposed plan of action to the President, through the Domestic Policy Advisor, to protect the Second Amendment rights of all Americans,” the order stated.

The 30-day due date for that report would have been March 9th, but that day came and went without any movement from Bondi or the White House. When this omission got some attention, the Department of Justice (DOJ) told ABC News that the deadline was extended to March 16th. Since then, the department has not provided any additional progress updates and did not respond to a request for comment for this article.

The administration’s apparent slow-walking and opacity surrounding its progress raises questions about how much it plans to follow through with the order’s proposed scope.

Trump promised gun voters swift action in undoing all of President Biden’s gun-control achievements during his “very first week back in office.” But he took three weeks before even broaching the subject, and only ordered a review to eventually consider which, if any, of his predecessor’s policies to reform or reverse.

To date, that has not resulted in the initiation of any new rulemaking to repeal any Biden-era regulations.

The few concrete indications of DOJ compliance with the order have mostly taken the form of requests for pauses in various ongoing gun cases to allow it to consider what position it wants to take. The department also began to push for a new framework for restoring the gun rights of former convicts. The New York Times has reported that move could benefit actor Mel Gibson and at least nine other as-yet-undisclosed individuals, though they haven’t announced any action yet.

While each of those fronts may eventually play out in gun-rights advocates’ favor, the administration’s restrained approach, especially in contrast to actions it has taken elsewhere, has already resulted in one significant loss for gun-rights groups. Though it could have immediately started rolling back Biden’s gun rules without Bondi’s review as an intermediate step, the Trump Administration’s decision to wait left the “ghost gun” kit ban case uninterrupted. That culminated in the Supreme Court issuing a 7-2 ruling upholding that ban at the end of last month, which could make undoing the ban down the line harder.

Delaying legal challenges while the department decides what position to take also risks drawing out the gun-rights movement’s longer-term project of stacking up court decisions permanently invalidating federal gun laws. Even if the DOJ decides not to defend a given gun law or de-prioritize enforcement, subsequent administrations can simply reverse that discretion. The same holds true for the new gun-rights restoration process, which risks undermining gun-rights advocates’ legal challenges to the federal ban on non-violent felons possessing firearms.

To be sure, the administration has also offered gun voters policy changes with more straightforward upsides. It unceremoniously dispensed with the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention, for example, which was set up by former President Biden to promote gun-control policies. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services also scrapped a 2024 surgeon general advisory calling for an “assault weapon” ban, among other new gun restrictions.

It has also, at times, broadened its view beyond the federally-focused executive order. For instance, the DOJ last month announced a civil rights investigation into Los Angeles County over its practice of subjecting concealed carry permit applicants to lengthy wait times and high application fees, and it suggested that additional investigations could soon follow. Shortly thereafter, Trump also issued a separate executive order establishing a new federal task force charged with, among other things, “increas[ing] the speed and lower[ing] the cost of processing concealed carry license requests in the District of Columbia.”

Those moves have no doubt been welcome developments for Second Amendment advocates. Still, they are less potentially impactful than the areas Trump ordered the DOJ to review, and those have seen little to no movement.


Podcast: Could Americans Under 21 Buy Guns at the Founding? (Ft. Gun Lawyer Alan Beck) [Member Early Access]
By Stephen Gutowski

This week, we’re doing a deep dive into the history surrounding Americans under 21 buying guns.

That’s why we’ve got gun-rights lawyer Alan Beck on the show. He’s currently representing a client who is fighting Hawaii’s age restrictions. In the wake of the Eleventh Circuit upholding Florida’s gun sales ban for those under 21 by pointing to how contract law limited the same age group’s ability to buy guns, he researched the question.

He argues the evidence contradicts the Eleventh Circuit’s holding. He said rulings from the Founding Era suggest those under 21 couldn’t enter into contracts for things that weren’t necessities, but that was actually a pretty broad exception. He said most guns would have been considered necessities because they were needed to hunt, perform mandated militia service, and provide for general security.

Beck also gave a working-lawyers view of the Supreme Court’s Second Amendment jurisprudence and where it’s headed. He described the details of his latest case at the High Court and what the cert application process is like.

You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting app or by clicking here. Video of the episode is also available on our YouTube channel. An auto-generated transcript is available here. Reload Members get access on Sunday, as always. Everyone else can listen on Monday.

Get a 30-day free trial for a subscription to The Dispatch by clicking here.

Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I discuss the potential fallout from President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on the gun and ammunition market. We talk about why the potential cost increases come at a precarious time for an industry already facing some headwinds, including another month of declining gun sales based on newly released figures. We also discuss dueling rulings in Pennsylvania and Illinois state courts on whether major gun companies can be sued for crimes committed by third parties with their products.

Audio here. Video here.


The Global Defense gun exporter booth at SHOT Show 2024
The Global Defense gun exporter booth at SHOT Show 2024 / Stephen Gutowski

Analysis: Trump’s Tariffs Could Hit Gun Industry Hard [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski

The gun industry is one of the few bright spots in American manufacturing, but that doesn’t mean it’s invulnerable to new tariffs.

While many storied firearms brands are American and still produce their products in America, imported guns and ammunition are also clearly popular. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives’ (ATF) most recent data shows American manufacturers produced 171,810,319 firearms from 2000 through 2023. The same numbers show Americans imported another 93,355,557 guns. American manufacturers also exported 9,409,676 firearms over that time.

ATF data on ammunition manufacturing and importing tells a similar story. While the numbers aren’t as precise, American makers produce most of the ammunition for the domestic market–though a Czech company just bought one of the biggest American ammo manufacturers. But imports have supplied a huge chunk of the ammunition market as well. Between 2010 and 2020, the ATF reports Americans imported more than 26 billion rounds of ammunition.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation, the industry’s trade group, estimates firearm and ammunition manufacturing employed 13,400 employees and created $5.8 billion in goods shipped during 2022. It said it doesn’t have immediate numbers on exactly how the broad-ranging tariffs might impact the gun industry. But it said it’s researching that question.

“We do not have any data on the impact of the tariffs at this time,” Matt Manda, a spokesman for the group, told The Reload. “NSSF is going to evaluate the tariffs in the coming days and hear from industry members.”

Of course, American manufacturers also use raw materials that often come from overseas. The guns and ammo they export will likely face new hostility in foreign markets as other countries retaliate with their own new tariffs. So, the impact is likely to be noticeable by both the manufacturers and consumers–especially on some of the most popular brands.

Austria, home of Glock, is in the European Union. So, it’ll be hit with a 20 percent tariff. Brazil, home of Taurus, will get a 10 percent tariff. Turkey, home of Canik, gets 10 percent as well.

That’s all before you consider firearms parts or accessories, such as red dot sights. Many of those are made in China, which is getting a 34 percent tariff added on top of the 20 percent tariff Trump imposed earlier this year. So, prices on all sorts of gun accessories will likely climb, too.

Those price hikes will come as the gun industry heads into uncertain territory. Many in the industry already expect lighter demand because President Donald Trump’s election is likely to temper fears among his supporters that new gun restrictions will come anytime soon. The gun market has been searching for a new sales floor ever since the record-highs of 2020, and the first quarter of 2025 has only delivered further drops in demand.

February fell nine percent year-over-year and 11.8 percent from 2020. March was down 3.8 percent year-over-year and 32.2 percent compared to 2020. Both months came in below several of their pre-pandemic predecessors as well.

The stock market isn’t hopeful about the gun industry either. Smith and Wesson’s stock is down 16 percent over the last month. Ruger’s is down 2.85 percent. Ammo Inc has lost 9.46 percent of its value.

The gun industry manufactures more of its products in the US than many others. However, imports and exports are very significant to the industry’s bottom line. So, it is likely to get hit hard by these new tariffs on top of managing the already daunting prospect of a years-long period of slumping demand.


That’s it for now.

I’ll talk to you all again soon.

Go Birds,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload

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