This week we did a lot of reporting on the NRA’s continued downward spiral. They’ve lost over a million members in four years and more than a hundred million in revenue. It’s not pretty.
But I think context is important too. The most common refrain I hear whenever we break bad news about the NRA, other than that people won’t give until Wayne LaPierre is gone, is that it doesn’t matter because other gun groups are taking their place. From the other side of the aisle, the most common response is that Everytown or Giffords or any of the other gun-control groups are now clearly bigger and more powerful than the NRA.
Neither of these things is actually true. Certainly, there’s an argument to be made about effectiveness per dollar. But the reality is the NRA is still leaps and bounds above everyone else when it comes to their finances. And that’s only counting the membership organization–the NRA has half a dozen other affiliates with big budgets too.
That’s why I had Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman lay out the details of just how the NRA compares in size to its rivals even after years of atrophy. The results aren’t even that close. A terrible year for the NRA would be an unthinkable record for basically any other group. That’s why they still matter so much.
At the same time, I take a look at the state of their finances and how bad things have gotten. And the day some other group overtakes the NRA may come sooner than later if it can’t turn things around.
Plus, Ian McCollum of Forgotten Weapons joins the podcast to talk about YouTube’s recent silencer video takedowns.
Analysis: NRA Rivals Still Lag Behind Despite Group’s Continued Downturn [Member Exclusive]
By Jake Fogleman
The National Rifle Association is deeply troubled, but it still dominates American gun politics.
According to the latest round of internal documents obtained by The Reload, the NRA lost more than one million members over the last four years. That precipitous drop in membership has spearheaded a substantial decline in revenue over the same period. NRA revenues peaked in 2016 when the group brought in more than $366 million. Through November 2022, the group brought in just $186 million. As a result, it has been forced to operate on a greatly diminished budget and is now smaller than it has been since 2012 when internal documents show the group had 4 million members.
The reaction to this news has been mixed. Among gun-rights supporters, it has ranged from a sense of lamentation for what the group has become to outright indifference to its misfortune under the assumption that other groups are in a position to replace the NRA. Among gun-control advocates, there has been a mix of schadenfreude and a similar sense of confidence that their preferred groups stand to replace the NRA.
In this regard, both sides are seriously mistaken.
To hear gun-control advocates tell it, the Everytown for Gun Safety and Giffords’ of the world are now in a position to overtake the NRA in terms of finances and political influence.
“Now, in much of the country, Moms Demand [Action]’s influence has eclipsed that of its longtime adversary, the National Rifle Association,” wrote Washington Post reporter John Woodrow Cox earlier this year.
However, one look at the financials of each group tells a different story.
The NRA’s internal financial documents show that the membership arm of the group alone brought in over $210 million in revenue in 2021 through November. By comparison, 2021 IRS filings maintained by ProPublica show that Everytown for Gun Safety brought in just over $47 million in revenue throughout the entire year of 2021. Giffords, the second most prominent gun control group, brought in just over $20 million in 2021, split between its advocacy and litigation arms. The Brady Campaign, meanwhile, brought in roughly $3.2 million that year.
That means despite NRA revenues nearly halving between 2018 and 2021, they were still three times that of the three largest gun-control organizations combined.
In terms of political spending, the story is much of the same. To be sure, gun-control interests got a significant notch on their belt when they outspent the NRA for the first time ever in the 2018 midterm elections. That again led many to speculate that gun-control groups had gained parity with the NRA. But that has since looked more like a one-off fluke, given that the NRA retook the top spot in election spending in the 2020 Presidential election and held its ground during the most recent 2022 midterm elections.
The argument that alternative gun-rights organizations are poised to fill the NRA’s shoes is equally mistaken. The idea the NRA doesn’t matter anymore, and that x, y, or z group will simply pick up the slack has become common among pro-gun critics of the group. But here, again, the financials tell a different story.
According to IRS filings maintained by ProPublica, Gun Owners of America (GOA) brought in nearly $9.5 million in revenue in 2021. That’s up from about $5 million in 2018, just before the NRA’s scandals came to light, but still nowhere near the $200 million+ organization that the NRA remains. Likewise, the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) brought in just over $10 million in 2021 between its core organization and its Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms. Again, an increase from just over $6.2 million in 2018. But still a far smaller than the NRA. The Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC), a relative newcomer compared with the other gun-rights organizations, has seen the most growth from under $1 million in 2018 to over $6.4 million in 2021. But it falls well short of what even a battered NRA can still manage today.
These groups are boosting their influence, to be sure, and have been arguably more efficient with their dollars than the NRA in recent years, particularly on the legal front. But the growth of each of these organizations has yet to come close to offsetting the NRA’s revenue losses.
From 2018 to 2021, GOA, FPC, and SAF grew in revenue by a combined total of just under $14 million. Over the same timeframe, the NRA’s revenue decreased by approximately $130 million, meaning that the organization’s losses were not the other gun-rights groups’ gains. At least, not completely.
Furthermore, each remains a fraction of the size and offers nowhere near the breadth of services the NRA does for things like election spending, lobbying, safety and training, certifications, competitive shooting, law enforcement programs, and more. In fact, many of the non-political services the NRA offers are provided by affiliated non-profits that don’t even show up in the membership side’s
The NRA is in trouble; there’s no question. But no other group on either side of the gun issue is in a position to fill the role currently played by the country’s oldest gun-rights organization. Most are lucky to raise 8 figures, and none can hope to raise 9 figures as the NRA commonly does. None have ever shown the ability to gather 60,000+ supporters together for an annual convention.
A very bad year for the NRA, as 2022 was, would still be an all-time record for any of the other gun groups out there.
The day when another group is able to supplant the NRA may be closer than ever before. But it hasn’t arrived yet and the NRA’s existing operations, warts and all, will continue to have significant implications for American gun politics.
Whether the group can pull out of its current downward financial spiral will ultimately determine for how long its influence remains above all else.
Podcast: Forgotten Weapons’ Ian McCollum on YouTube’s Silencer Video Takedowns [Member Early Access]
By Stephen Gutowski
This week we’re focused on YouTube’s erratic moderation of silencers.
The social media giant began deleting videos and even whole channels that featured silencers, often called suppressors, from their site a few weeks back. Then, after public outcry and an inquiry from The Reload, the company reversed course. But the damage to trust many gun creators had in the platform was already done by then.
Ian McCollum, who had one of his suppressor videos from Forgotten Weapons deleted, joins the podcast to talk about the ordeal. He explains how this is not the first time YouTube has targeted gun channels with unclear policies. In fact, he said he’s been dealing with these problems nearly the entire time he’s been on the platform.
That’s why he’s attempted to diversify where his content is hosted over the years. He’s also taken to using alternative means for growing a sustainable income outside of YouTube in order to mitigate against the video company’s impact on his ability to make the content he and his audience love. At the same time, he said he remains on YouTube because it’s by far the largest platform out there and it’s important to go where the audience is.
He also shares some insight into what he has planned for the future of Forgotten Weapons. Both the long-term vision for the company and some hints at upcoming videos.
Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about how the NRA managed to lose over a million members in just 4 years.
You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting site or by clicking here. Video of the episode is available on our YouTube channel. Reload Members get access on Sunday (Go Birds!). Everyone else will get it on Monday.
Come on the Podcast
One of the many perks of a Reload membership is the opportunity to appear on the podcast. We’ve had a lot of people on the show from all kinds of backgrounds. It’s one of my favorite segments since it gives us all a better insight into the community that makes this publication possible. If you want to come on the show, just reply to this email and let me know!
NRA Borrowed $23 Million, Still Faced $11 Million Shortfall in 2022 [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
The National Rifle Association plugged a massive gap in its 2022 budget with tens of millions in debt.
However, even after tapping its line of credit to the tune of $23.6 million, the NRA still ran an $11.6 million deficit, according to an internal budget document obtained by The Reload. The substantial borrowing came despite the group’s 2022 budget anticipating paying down the same line of credit by $10 million. An apparently unexpected drop in membership revenue and jump in legal costs forced the gun-rights group further into debt.
The reliance on debt to plug a huge hole in the NRA’s budget may become more challenging to do as its revenues decline. Without a turnaround in the group’s membership woes, it can only forestall further cuts to core services for so long.
Rocky Marshall, a former NRA board member and critic of current leadership, claimed the group is already approaching the limit of what it can borrow. He argued the group is likely headed toward an untenable situation.
“This downward spiral is likely to accelerate as more members become disgusted with the corruption and misuse of donations by Wayne LaPierre, management staff, and the Board of Directors,” Marshall told The Reload.
Brian Mittendorf, an accounting professor at Ohio State University who studies the NRA, agreed the organization’s finances are in dire straights.
“Their financial performance and lack of other revenue sources have demonstrated how little margin for error their business model has,” he told The Reload. “The way things have developed, they run the risk of a downward spiral that is hard to reverse, a cycle that would result in the organization becoming a shell of its former self.”
The NRA did not respond to a request for comment.
Mittendorf said a line of credit can be an “effective means” for a group the size of the NRA to deal with “short-term cash fluctuations.” But it can also become an unsteady crutch when misused.
“If, instead, such short-term borrowing becomes a means of avoiding addressing more sustained cash shortfalls in their budget, something will give way quickly,” Mittendorf said. “Only so much can be borrowed before no more will be lent, and a revenue shortfall becomes an inability to pay bills.”
To that end, the NRA projects the group won’t use its line of credit at all in its 2023 budget. Instead, without explanation, it forecasts a 21 percent increase in membership revenue. Combined with a nearly $20 million assumed drop in legal costs, the NRA plans to break exactly even in pre-investment revenue and expenses.
But the NRA’s recent budget projections have missed by wide margins. If the group’s rosy predictions don’t come through in 2023, the group will once again be forced to plug the gaps in some way.
Still, Mittendorf said the NRA’s “membership base remains relatively strong.” He believes there is still time for the group to turn things around.
“Rather than a huge dropoff, they have seen more of a slow trickle of member revenue declines,” he said.
Marshall, on the other hand, thinks insolvency is becoming unavoidable.
“Most companies that eventually file bankruptcy are primarily driven by the cash flow of the operation,” he said. “The NRA will likely follow suit and be forced into bankruptcy in the coming months because the expenses are significantly outpacing the revenues.”
That’s it for now.
I’ll talk to you all again soon.
Thanks,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload
