The Reload Analysis Newsletter

Members’ Newsletter: Firsthand Lessons From a Murderer’s Manhunt

Well, this was a hell of a week for me.

The farm, which most of you have seen featured in this newsletter as a peaceful place I get to retreat to from time to time, became a source of stress and fear. An escaped murderer appeared–as if from a nightmare–just down the street early in the week. I describe the whole ordeal I went through, and why I was glad to have a rifle well suited for the unenviable task I was up against.

But I also explain how it made me reprioritize the upkeep of my guns.

This was also a hell of a week for New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D.). But for much different reasons. As Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman writes, her gambit to use emergency powers to outright suspend gun-carry rights in her state’s largest city and county ran straight into a political wall.

Plus, the Second Amendment Foundation’s Adam Kraut joins the podcast to discuss the successful legal fight against the New Mexico gun-carry ban.


A roadblock keeping people from driving into the search area during the hunt for an escaped Pennsylvania convict on September 12, 2023
A roadblock keeping people from driving into the search area during the hunt for an escaped Pennsylvania convict on September 12, 2023 / Stephen Gutowski

My Time at the Center of a Manhunt for an Escaped Murderer
By Stephen Gutowski

On Tuesday night, the illumination of the motion light mounted over my grandparents’ garage signaled a possibility it never had before: that an escaped murderer may be approaching.

Bryce Harper was coming up to bat in the bottom of the eight against the Atlanta Braves. He’d hit a home run, but I wouldn’t see it. Instead, I was outside with my AR-15 pressed to my cheek, flashlight on as I pied the corner of the small ranch home that sits across the street from my mother’s horse farm.

My grandmother was outwardly unconcerned, which made me all the more concerned. Her house and the farm were technically outside the area police claimed Danelo Cavalcante, the convicted killer who’d escaped from a Pennsylvania prison nearly two weeks prior, was cornered in. But the four helicopters and airplanes we’d just seen overflying us made that claim seem less than certain.

It was those same overflights that kept my mom and stepdad from sleeping the night before after Cavalcante suddenly ended very close to home. He’d ditched a van he stole from a dairy near the prison he broke out of. The Chester County Prison is south of West Chester, close to the town I grew up in, but about an hour’s drive from the farm.

So, I was initially a bit worried about my close friends who still live in West Chester. Not too worried, though, because I figured he’d get caught in a few days and wouldn’t venture near the populated areas where my friends and their families actually live. And, while he was clearly depraved and dangerous, he only had the clothes on his back to work with.

It was a hell of a shock when, 12 days later, the van he stole was found abandoned a few miles from the farm. There was never any reason to think he’d end up there. It’s all horse farms and woods. No transportation hubs or train yards or anything else needed to skip town. But it’s also not necessarily remote enough to hide out in for weeks or months.

Shock turned to terror when reports came in that shots had been fired, and he’d stolen a rifle from an elderly couple’s garage that’s even closer to the farm than where the van was recovered. He’d now ended up on the backroad I use on the last leg of my drive up the farm. He was just a few doors down from our friend’s farm, who graciously lets me host my charity shooting events on his private range.

I suggested to my mom that it might be a good idea for me to come up while the ordeal unfolded. My grandfather still has his service revolver from his career as a cop, but he’s 90 years old now and can’t patrol like he used to. My stepdad had military training and a lone .22lr rifle of questionable reliability, putting him in a similar boat.

It just made sense for me to come up and help out, at least. I’m a certified firearms instructor who has taken a bunch of specialized active shooter and gun defense classes. I also have a bunch of guns much better suited for defending a farm from an armed escape.

But what worried me more than the fact Cavalcante was armed was that he was armed with a rifle. Yes, it was a relatively modest .22lr rifle, but a rifle nonetheless. That means he had range on his side.

I still brought a selection of self-defense guns because the more backups, the better. My 12-gauge pump-action shotgun would still provide a huge advantage if he managed to get close or inside one of the houses without being spotted. I gave my mom and stepdad a refresher on the gun safety rules and basics of using a shotgun for home defense.

I loaded my 9mm carry pistol, an older Springfield XDs since my new Sig Sauer P3650 X-Macro was down and out at the worst moment, as soon as I crossed into Pennsylvania, where I’m licensed to carry. It sat next to me in my car in case he tried to stop me and take my car–something that was a very real threat.

But my AR-15 was the only gun I had available that offered the capability most likely to matter. Since he could reach 0ut and touch us with his rifle, I needed to be able to do the same but better. A shotgun and a handgun, even chambered in more powerful calibers, are a bad matchup against a rifle at a distance.

While running into Cavalecante as I drove around during the day was possible, it seemed far more likely he’d show up on the back edge of our horse pasture coming out of the gameland woods. Those woods connect to the woods where he was spotted on Tuesday.

If he ended up a few hundred yards behind the farm shooting at me and mine, I wanted to be able to shoot back with something that could not only reach that far with accuracy but also stopping power. And, since I would need to lug the gun around the property to check whatever unknowns popped up, it had to be relatively light. With a chaotic shootout a likely outcome of any confrontation between me and Cavalcante, the capacity to get off rounds quickly was paramount.

There just isn’t a better firearm suited for that task than the AR-15.

My grandparents’ motion light coming on seemed it could mean I was about to test that theory. After all, everyone assumed Cavalcante was probably sleeping and hiding during the day while traveling around at night. And, as I made the last slice around the corner staring through my red-dot sight with my cheek pressed to the stock, it felt like I might end up staring down a man who stabbed his girlfriend to death in front of her kids as he tried to break into my grandparents’ home.

Thankfully, instead, the only thing inside the halo of the garage light was my Jeep. No sign of what motion caused it to go off. The pitch black outside the splash of illumination wasn’t reassuring. But the flashlight mounted on the foregrip of my gun helped me quickly figure out the rest of the yard and tree line were empty too.

It was a false alarm.

As Harper’s home run only briefly boosted the hope that the Phillies could pull off a comeback, the empty yard only provided some momentary piece of mind. The farm and two houses aren’t huge, but they are a substantial challenge for one person to cover. And the motion light on the barn ended up as sensitive as the one on the side of my grandparents’ house.

The helicopters and false alarms kept me up and busy most of the night. The stress was immense. I didn’t know how many days I could keep doing all that.

Luckily, the police turned out to be correct. They really did have Cavalcante bottled up inside the perimeter. And, with the help of a police dog, they finally tracked him down and captured him without a shot fired around eight on Wednesday morning.

I was relieved the ordeal was over. The police got their guy before he could hurt anyone else. I never had to confront him.

I may have lost some sleep and gained some gray hair, but I was also able to provide enough reassurance to my mom that she was able to sleep on Tuesday night. So, that certainly made the trip worth it.


My AR-15 equipped with a red-dot sight, sling, and light
My AR-15 equipped with a red-dot sight, sling, and light / Stephen Gutowski

How a Manhunt Re-Prioritized My Gear Prep [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski

As I rushed to pack for an emergency trip up to my mom’s farm because an escaped murderer had shown up just down the street and was now armed, I realized I had a problem. Several of the guns I was going to bet my family’s safety on were not up to the task.

On Tuesday, Danelo Cavalcante was spotted just a few miles from the farm. That put my mom, stepdad, grandmother, and grandfather at risk of running up against a man who escaped from prison after being convicted of stabbing his girlfriend to death in front of her children. Then, the threat ramped up as he stole a rifle from a nearby garage.

And that put me to work gathering a collection of guns best suited to try and counter him.

But, as I picked out the guns I wanted to take with me, two of the most important ones needed work before they could be useful. The more vital of them was my AR-15. Since Cavalcante was armed with a rifle, even if it was a relatively weak .22lr, I needed something that could match his range and outmatch his stopping power.

That’s where the AR I built years ago came into play. It was already set up pretty well for the task. Sure, it didn’t have a thermal sight or variable distance scope, which would have been most ideal. But I did have a very usable Sightmark red-dot sight, attached light, and sling.

The problem, as you may have guessed, showed up in the two battery-powered accessories on the gun. Other than occasional range trips, the AR mostly sits in the rack on my wall. The dot and light are both, of course, off when it’s up there.

However, that apparently wasn’t enough to keep them both from being dead when I grabbed it and went to pack it for the trip. The light worked fine after replacing the battery.

The red dot put up more of a fight. The next battery I put in didn’t work either, and I started to think the sight was broken. But a third battery solved the problem, which is good since I didn’t want to have the iron sights as my only option.

The AR didn’t have the only problematic red dot, though. My carry gun’s was even worse. I bought a Sig Sauer P365 X-Macro with a factory-installed Romeo Zero Elite earlier this year mostly because it offered a huge upgrade in capacity over my Springfield XDs. And the red dot offered easier sight acquisition.

Unfortunately, the dot’s battery died just about a month after I bought it. That’s an obvious red flag, but I figured it could be some issue with the original battery and gave it a second chance with a new battery. It failed the second change when I went to pick it up to pack, and the red dot didn’t illuminate.

Another dead battery. Unbelievable.

This was a bigger problem than with the Sightmark because, unlike that red dot, the Sig red dot must be completely removed from the gun to change the battery. That means it has to be re-zeroed every time you replace the battery. And I simply didn’t have time to re-zero before going up to the farm.

So, I brought the Springfield instead.

This provides some ammo for people who distrust integrating electronics into firearms for any purpose. Ironsights can’t run out of batteries. But I’m still not convinced the risks outweigh the benefits of using at least some electronics, especially when they do have backups. I am convinced electronics need a lot more babying and maintenance than most mechanical components.

Either way, the whole mess cost me time getting to the farm. It also made me fall back to a less effective sidearm.

Police caught Cavalcante after one restless night on the farm. So, thankfully, none of the problems mattered this time around.

But they very easily could have been decisive had things gone differently, especially if I hadn’t thoroughly checked my equipment before I made the trip up. If I’d discovered these issues as I unpacked the guns, it’s unlikely I could have gotten the relatively uncommon battery the red dot needs, and I probably wouldn’t have brought my backup carry gun. So, I would have been much less prepared.

It all serves as an excellent reminder to keep an eye on the things you plan to use to protect yourself and your loved ones. Batteries die, even when they’re not being used. Oil dries out. Rust develops. Screws go loose. Chaos happens.

It’s better to know what’s wrong when you actually have time to fix it.


Podcast: The Second Amendment Foundation’s Adam Kraut on Blocking New Mexico’s Gun-Carry Ban [Member Early Access]
By Stephen Gutowski

The emergency gun-carry ban implemented by New Mexico’s governor has been blocked by a federal judge. This week on the show, we have one of the men responsible for securing that order.

Adam Kraut is the Second Amendment Foundation’s Executive Director. They were one of at least five groups to successfully challenge Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s (D.) order.

He said the case is simple. The order was clearly an unconstitutional violation of the Second Amendment, especially given the Supreme Court recently ruled that gun carry is specifically protected just last year. Governor Lujan Grisham pulled back on the total ban late this week in a potential attempt to short-circuit the case against her, but Kraut explained the legal strategy his group is using to keep the case alive.

Plus, I describe being stuck in the middle of a manhunt for an escaped murderer. And Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman discusses the political fallout from Lujan Grisham’s failed order.

You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting app or by clicking here. Video of the episode is available on our YouTube channel. Reload Members get access on Sunday, as always. Everyone else can listen on Monday.


Pro-gun protesters
Pro-gun counter protesters demonstrate at the March For Our Lives protest in Washington, D.C. on March 24th, 2018 / Stephen Gutowski

Analysis: New Mexico’s Governor Has Discovered New Political Limits of Gun Control [Member Exclusive]
By Jake Fogleman

New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D.) isn’t the first elected official to try and score partisan points by pushing for a constitutionally dubious gun policy. But she is quickly becoming one of the first in recent memory to see that effort backfire.

Late last Friday, Lujan Grisham issued an “emergency order” declaring that it would be illegal to carry a gun openly or concealed in Albuquerque and Bernalillo County for 30 days, even for those with valid carry permits. Just five days later, a federal judge put a stop to the ban with a temporary restraining order.

Lujan Grisham’s failed carry ban is the latest in a long line of state and local politicians attempting to push the envelope of gun policy. The quintessential example is the city of Philadelphia, where policymakers routinely try to pass gun control laws despite being keenly aware of Pennsylvania’s preemption law. Though the city nearly always loses in court, it continues this course because, in a deep blue city like Philadelphia, there is usually no political price to be paid for passing illegal gun laws—only political upside.

The same calculus can be seen in the Bruen-response bills passed in states like New York and New Jersey that have, in effect, created carry regimes more restrictive than those the Supreme Court struck down when it recognized a constitutional right to carry a firearm. Though New York and New Jersey have already received several rulings against broad swaths of their respective new laws, California lawmakers are preparing to adopt essentially the same policy because in the Golden State, as along the Acela corridor, gun restrictions are praised more than they are condemned.

But what happened in New Mexico, despite its status as a safe-blue state, has taken a dramatically different course. Instead of praise, Governor Lujan Grisham has almost unanimously received scorn.

Predictably, Grisham’s order was met with fiery condemnation from gun-rights advocates who quickly filed a bevy of lawsuits seeking to have it struck down.

“It is extremely clear that Grisham knows she is operating outside of Constitutional bounds, especially after last summer’s Bruen ruling which specifically protected individuals’ rights to carry firearms outside the home,” the National Association for Gun Rights, one of the groups suing the Governor, said in a statement.

But while the response from gun rights groups was pronounced, they weren’t alone in denouncing the Governor’s order. Indeed, the criticism she is currently facing from her own political allies and other gun-control advocates shows just how much her plan has gone over like a lead balloon.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez (D.), who was endorsed by gun-control groups like Everytown for Gun Safety, sent a letter to the Governor Tuesday informing her that he would not defend the gun ban order in court because he believes it’s unconstitutional.

“Though I recognize my statutory obligation as New Mexico’s chief legal officer to defend state officials when they are sued in their official capacity, my duty to uphold and defend the constitutional rights of every citizen takes precedence,” his letter reads. “Simply put, I do not believe that the Emergency Order will have any meaningful impact on public safety but, more importantly, I do not believe it passes constitutional muster.”

Bernalillo County District Attorney and former chair of the state’s Democratic Party Sam Bregman, whom Grisham appointed, has also refused to enforce the order and questioned its legality.

“As an officer of the court, I cannot and will not enforce something that is clearly unconstitutional,” Bregman told the Associated Press.

The county’s sheriff John Allen (D.) was even more forceful during a press conference on Monday.

“It’s unconstitutional, so there’s no way we can enforce that order,” Bernalillo County Sheriff John Allen (D.) said. “This ban does nothing to curb gun violence.”

Allen, who also enjoyed endorsements from Everytown during his last election race, said he was “shocked and irritated” by the Governor’s order.

“We don’t agree on this at all,” Allen added. “This is unconstitutional, and I uphold my oath [to the Constitution] seriously.”

That last comment seemed to be a direct shot at the Governor, who said, “No constitutional right, in my view, including my oath, is intended to be absolute,” during her press conference announcing the ban.

U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich (D.-N.M.) felt compelled to issue a statement on the order urging the Governor to refocus her attention on other methods of reducing gun violence.

“We need to focus on solutions that are constitutional and enforceable,” he said. “That’s what will save lives.”

Heinrich was not the only elected Democrat from the state to call out the Governor over the order. Lawmakers from the state legislature, many who had previously voted in favor of gun-control bills, also condemned the carry ban.

“Having passed key gun safety laws working with her administration, I call on the Governor to rescind her order outlawing arms,” State Senator Joe Cervantes (D.) said on Twitter. “An unconstitutional approach undermines the important collaboration gun issues deserve, and the important role of a Governor to lead genuine reforms.”

Cervantes was joined by a group of six House Democrats who sent a letter calling on the Governor to rescind her order.

“We concur with law enforcement leaders that these executive orders violate law-abiding citizens’ Second Amendment rights and would require law enforcement officers to infringe upon these rights, which could expose officers, police agencies, and communities to civil litigation,” the letter shared on Twitter by State Representative Joseph Sanchez (D.) reads. “We agree that the Governor does not have the authority to disregard both the New Mexico Constitution and the U.S. Constitution and to create law without action from the New Mexico Legislature.”

The New Mexico chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) chimed in with concern over the ban, though its critiques focused solely on the criminal justice implications of the move rather than concerns over the Second Amendment.

“The ACLU of New Mexico is heartbroken over the recent death of a child and shares the governor’s concern for the well-being of our community. However, we are equally concerned that her solution to the complicated problems of substance abuse, addiction, and gun violence is to pour more resources into law enforcement,” Lalita Moskowitz, the group’s litigation manager, said in a press release. “Historically, this kind of approach leads to the over policing of our communities, racial profiling, and increased misery in the lives of already marginalized people.”

Prior to the court order blocking her unilateral ban, the Governor was defiant in the face of the widespread criticism she faced. In response to a public demonstration in an Albuquerque park against the ban over the weekend, which featured many protestors openly carrying firearms in violation of the ban, the Governor’s office hinted that the demonstrators could be cited.

“The order is being enforced, and citations will be forthcoming from the State Police,” Caroline Sweeney, a Lujan Grisham spokeswoman, told The Paper. “To ensure officer safety, we will not be providing additional details at this time.”

But with prominent Democratic lawmakersgun-control activists, major progressive interest groups, and now the federal courts continuing to line up against her, it could become much harder for the Governor to avoid backing off of her stance.  Ultimately, whether or not she suffers any measurable electoral consequences will be the true test of how much the gun-carry ban backfired. But the swift condemnation she has already received from all sides is evidence of a new political limit for gun control.


That’s it for now.

I’ll talk to you all again soon.

Thanks,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload

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