President Joe Biden’s struggle to convince Americans he knows what he’s doing on gun policy got worse this week. Two polls showed his approval on the issue is significantly worse than his already-poor overall approval. And both showed him at all-time lows on the issue.
I take a close look at why he underperforms on gun policy and why his problems will only worsen as he finishes out his term.
The latest update on his pistol-brace ban is more bad news for the President. On Friday, a Fifth Circuit panel clarified that the most expansive reading of its injunction blocking the ban was the right one. So, the ATF can’t go after Firearms Policy Coalition members or Maxim Defense customers over their pistol-brace-equipped firearms.
But there was bad news for gun-rights advocates this week too. Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman examines a negative trend in polling that should concern gun owners. And he thinks it’s what’s driving some Republican lawmakers to take some surprising positions in recent months.
Plus, Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey joins the podcast to analyze the DeSantis/Trump war over guns. And I give an update on my new carry gun and holster system.
Analysis: Biden’s Poor Approval on Guns Unlikely to Rise Anytime Soon [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
Just 31 percent of Americans think President Joe Biden is doing a good job of handling gun policy. That number marks a new low, but it’s also unlikely to rise much before the 2024 election.
On Monday, The Associated Press (AP) and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released a poll that showed Biden’s approval on the issue dropped five points from last June. A CNN/SSRS poll released on Friday found Biden’s approval falling to an all-time low as well, with just 30 percent of respondents happy with his performance. Both found his approval on guns was significantly lower than his overall approval rating.
Biden’s general approval, as you might expect, is highly polarized. Democrats are more likely to approve of the job he’s doing than Republicans. That’s true on gun policy as well, but to a lesser degree because Democrats are almost evenly split on how he’s handled that issue.
The AP poll shows 50 percent of Democrats approve of how the president has handled firearms, but 48 percent disapprove. Those are lower marks than they give him on the economy, immigration, and student loans.
But the underperformance on gun policy isn’t new for Biden. His approval on the issue has languished behind his general approval since early in his presidency. There are at least two factors at play that drive that dynamic.
The first is that violence has been noticeably worse under Biden than in previous administrations. The upswing may have begun before he took office, but the issues have persisted throughout his time in office.
Murder has spiked since the start of 2020 and, while the tide seems to be receding somewhat, killings remain well above the pre-pandemic era. So, the murder rate has understandably been at top of mind for many Americans during Biden’s presidency.
The same can be said for mass shootings. While there is a great deal of debate and confusion surrounding exactly how to define what even constitutes a mass shooting, no matter what definition you use, they are happening at a record pace right now. And that’s after they nearly disappeared in 2020 (thanks, likely in large part, due to lockdowns and the public’s general avoidance of crowds). So, the contrast between the two mass shootings The Violence Project tallied that entire year and the five we’ve experienced through May alone is especially stark.
The second factor is just how polarized the issue has become. Americans want to reduce the number of mass shootings and gun murders, but they have very different ideas on how to make that happen. Democrats generally want more gun restrictions, while Republicans want stricter enforcement of current laws and fewer “gun-free zones.”
There’s obviously a lot more nuance between the general split, but the effect is what really matters here. Biden clearly sides with Democrats on the policy solutions he wants to implement. He doesn’t even emphasize the more moderate gun-control policies Democrats favor, such as universal background checks. Instead, he has long centered his firearms agenda around a ban on AR-15s and similar firearms as well as magazines that hold more than ten rounds.
That inherently puts him at odds with Republican voters on the issue. That means they will likely always give him poor marks. To that end, the AP poll found 89 percent disapprove of his gun handling.
Now, usually, Democrats would balance things out here. But, as noted above, they’re pretty unhappy too. Much of that likely comes down to frustration associated with poor expectation setting.
Biden promised throughout his campaign that he would defeat the NRA and pass a new “assault weapons” ban to address mass shootings. Whether that would be effective is for another piece, but passing a ban isn’t actually possible with Republicans who opposed the policy in control of the House. Of course, it clearly wasn’t possible even when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress either since they tried and failed.
This was foreseeable and foreseen. Democrats had no chance of winning 60 seats in the 2020 election, which they would’ve needed to pass a ban. Even with the 50 they did get, it was clear there wouldn’t even be a show vote since not all of them support such a ban.
Instead of making that clear, Biden set up expectations among Democratic voters that he not only could get a bill through but that he definitely would. His public statements still reflect that even as the odds of it happening have worsened.
So, it’s not terribly surprising a sizable chunk of his voters are frustrated they haven’t gotten the gun bans they were promised.
Because of this dynamic, Biden will remain stuck between a rock and a hard place for the rest of his first term. And it’s likely only going to get worse. That’s because of the policies he has been able to pursue on his own.
Some of the executive gun actions Biden has taken will have significant effects. His pistol-brace ban, which goes into effect for most people in days, will likely result in millions of gun owners falling into legal limbo for firearms they bought legally throughout the past decade. His “ghost-gun” ban redefines what a firearm even is.
But the problem with both of these policies, besides the fact they are very likely to end in legal defeats for the administration, is they are likely to anger millions of gun voters while doing little to satisfy gun-control advocates. Anyone who owns a pistol-braced gun will probably be mad when they are forced to register their gun, dismantle it, or risk stiff criminal charges. However, the vast majority of Biden voters probably don’t even know what pistol braces are or why Biden wants to effectively ban them.
Supporters will likely argue Biden’s executive actions will save lives (another question for a different story), but they are almost certainly a one-way ratchet that drives down his approval on gun policy.
Biden’s best hope for a reversal before the 2024 election lies in a noticeable improvement in the gun murder rate or mass shootings. Unfortunately for him, outside of moving federal law enforcement resources around, there probably isn’t a lot he can do in the short term to impact either of those. That’s especially true with mass shootings since they are difficult to predict and prevent.
A general increase in Biden’s approval could also have a “rising tides raise all ships” effect on his gun approval, especially as partisans return to him once we get closer to the general election. But the smart money is on Americans continuing to think he’s done a poor job on gun policy for the foreseeable future.
Fifth Circuit Panel Says Pistol-Brace Ban Block Extends to Gun Group’s Members, Gun Company’s Customers
By Stephen Gutowski
The ATF can’t arrest members of the Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC) or customers of Maxim Defense for possession of unregistered pistol-brace-equipped guns, according to a new federal court order.
A three-judge panel on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a new clarification on Friday of its earlier injunction against enforcement of President Biden’s pistol-brace ban. The court sided with FPC’s reading of the injunction and said the order extends to all members of the gun-rights group as well as people who bought braced guns from fellow-plaintiff Maxim Defense.
“This clarification is granted essentially for the reasons concisely set forth in the May 25, 2023, Plaintiffs-Appellants’ Reply to Their Opposed Motion for Clarification of Injunction Pending Appeal,” the court wrote in Mock v Garland. “There, the appellants acknowledge that ‘[a]lthough a nationwide injunction would have functionally addressed the question of scope, on which Plaintiffs now seek clarity, Plaintiffs understand that one was not given . . . . Instead, Plaintiffs merely request clarification on whether their reading of the term ‘Plaintiffs’ to include the customers and members whose interests Plaintiffs Maxim Defense and Firearms Policy Coalition (‘FPC’) have represented since day one of this litigation is correct.’ That reading is correct. Also as requested, the term “Plaintiffs in this case” includes the individual plaintiffs’ resident family members.”
The ruling establishes that the injunction, issued just days before the deadline to register braced guns or face potential federal felony charges, is meant to be read in the most expansive way possible. That may directly impact a second injunction against the ban issued by a federal district judge yesterday, which was worded in the same way as the panel’s order. That increases the difficulty the ATF will have in trying to enforce its new rule since scores more people will be immune from prosecution as the case proceeds.
The issue stems from Biden’s decision to try and reclassify pistol-brace-equipped guns as short-barrel rifles and shotguns, subject to the rules of the National Firearms Act of 1934 (NFA). That left millions of owners with the options of either dismantling, destroying, or registering their guns by the end of this month. Anyone who refuses to comply could be subject to federal felony charges for possessing an unregistered NFA item.
As soon as the rule was finalized, numerous gun-rights groups filed suit against the rule. They challenged its constitutionality under the Second Amendment, arguing the guns are protected because they are in common use for lawful purposes. And they also challenged the authority of the ATF to reclassify the braced firearms without new legislation from Congress under the Administrative Procedures Act, a legal strategy that has borne fruit in challenges to the bump stock ban.
Cody J. Wisniewski, a senior attorney at FPC, said the clarification confirms the ATF will be severely limited in how it can try to enforce the ban while the court cases against it play out.
“We’re incredibly excited to report that the Fifth Circuit has clarified that our injunction covers FPC’s members and Maxim Defense’s customers, as we have always argued for,” he said in a statement. “This relief will offer protection while we continue to fight against ATF’s overreach.”
The panel’s order also noted it would not go beyond issuing an injunction for plaintiffs directly named in or implicated by the case because that “arguably would be tantamount to a nationwide injunction.” The order explained the panel was not unanimous in its decision either.
“One member of the merits panel would not clarify the motion panel’s order to extend the injunction to ‘customers,’” the court wrote in a footnote. “The motion panel’s injunction was limited ‘to the Plaintiffs in this case.’ There is no authority in the motion panel’s order to extend the injunction to an infinite number of non-parties to this case on the theory that, for full relief to be afforded to the plaintiffs, the plaintiffs must be permitted to sell products to an undefined set of downstream purchasers. Full adversary briefing will assist us to confirm our court’s equitable powers under the Constitution. ”
The court reiterated that the injunction and its scope do not reflect where the panel might come down on the merits of the case against the brace ban.
“Nothing in this order is to be construed as a comment on the merits of any issue that this panel may ultimately address,” it wrote in the order. “The limited purpose of this clarification is to preserve the status quo ante to provide what the agency defendants term ‘complete relief’ to the parties and persons within the reasonable scope of the motion panel’s injunction pending appeal.”
The Department of Justice, which declined to comment after the initial injunction was released, did not respond to a request for comment on the clarification.
Come on the Podcast
One of the many perks of a Reload membership is the opportunity to appear on the podcast. We’ve had a lot of people on the show from all kinds of backgrounds. It’s one of my favorite segments since it gives us all a better insight into the community that makes this publication possible. If you want to come on the show, just reply to this email and let me know!
Podcast: Will DeSantis Attacks on Trump Gun Record Work? (Featuring Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey) [Member Early Access]
By Stephen Gutowski
This week, we have one of the people who inspired me to get into political writing all the way back in college.
Ed Morrissey, the managing editor of Hot Air, has long been one of the most insightful conservative political analysts out there. He joins the show to break down the early days of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, especially his latest attacks on frontrunner Donald Trump’s gun record. In one of his first interviews after launching his campaign, DeSantis said Trump’s 2018 call to ‘take the guns first, go through due process second’ was “wrong” and “unconstitutional.”
DeSantis has spent months bolstering his pro-gun legislative accomplishments, and now he and his supporters are going after Trump’s weak spots on guns and other policy positions. Ed said the strategy is a sound one and could pay dividends in the long run despite Trump’s huge early polling lead. But he also said DeSantis would have to match that rhetorical attack with a robust ground game to have any hope of beating the former president.
We also looked even further ahead at the potential general election matchup against President Joe Biden. His approval ratings have been tanking for a long while now, and Americans are particularly unhappy with how he’s handled gun policy. Ed said Biden had nobody to blame but himself, especially overpromising Democrats on what kinds of gun control policies he could actually get done. Still, Ed noted those unhappy Democrats may ultimately come back and vote for him in a general election.
I also give an update on how my new carry setup is evolving. I’m trying out the Phlster Enigma and modding it to try and get it as comfortable as possible, which may convince me to switch to appendix carry full-time. However, I ran into some new issues with my Sig Sauer P365 X-Macro and the red dot it came with.
Plus, Contributing Writer Jake Fogleman and I do our best to explain the latest developments with the injunctions against Biden’s pistol-brace ban. (The Fifth Circuit issued a clarification that it does cover FPC members and Maxim Defense customers after we recorded the episode)
You can listen to the show on your favorite podcasting app or by clicking here. Video of the episode is also available on our YouTube channel. As always, Reload Members get access on Sunday. Everyone else can listen when it goes public on Monday.
Analysis: Is the Court of Public Opinion Turning Against Gun Rights? [Member Exclusive]
By Jake Fogleman
Gun-rights advocates have had tremendous success in courtrooms across the country as of late, but have they ceded ground in the court of public opinion?
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Wednesday found the highest number of Americans in more than a decade who say the need to defend gun rights is less important than reducing gun violence. It found 60 percent of Americans now think controlling gun violence is more important, including 55 percent of self-described political independents, while just 38 percent say the opposite. That’s a significant change from 2013, the year the poll first began asking this question, when the public was evenly split on the question. The percentage of respondents who moved away from prioritizing gun rights steadily increased each year in between.
That’s a troubling sign if you’re a gun-rights supporter.
The phrasing of the poll question limits the implications to some degree. Gun-rights advocates may argue that defending gun rights and combatting gun violence are not mutually exclusive. But the troubling signs extend beyond just that one question. The same poll found that 62 percent of Americans react to mass shootings by calling for stricter gun laws, up three percentage points from 2019.
And it’s not the result of a skewed sample of people generally opposed to gun rights. The same poll found that nearly six-in-ten U.S. adults support “stand-your-ground” laws. That percentage was actually up three percentage points since 2019, and it included the support of more than 80 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of Independents. The same poll also identified a ten-percentage point increase in the number of Americans who say they think more people should carry guns to combat mass shootings.
That means even as the vast majority of people have come to support robust public self-defense rights, and more people want to expand gun carry to defend against public attackers, the public is souring on the idea of protecting gun rights more broadly.
The diverging results in support for self-defense protections versus gun rights suggest the electorate is currently struggling with how best to balance support for personal protection and public safety at a time when murder rates and the pace of mass shootings are increasing to record levels. Other recent data provides support for that theory.
An April Fox News poll found that “gun control/violence” has rocketed up the list of priorities for voters in a way that it has not been in years past. That poll found that the issue trailed only the economy and inflation in order of importance in voters’ minds. It also found that a majority of Americans report being extremely or very concerned that they or a loved one will be a victim of gun violence.
This rising concern has also begun to show itself in the political arena. There have now been several recent examples of red-state politicians unexpectedly backing gun control proposals in the face of public outcry over mass shootings.
In the aftermath of a mass shooting at a Christian school in Nashville, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee (R.) issued an executive order designed to boost gun background checks and, most notably, has been front-and-center in promoting a version of a red-flag law for his state. This is despite Lee representing one of the most conservative and gun-friendly states in the country.
Likewise, two Republican Texas state representatives voted in favor of a bill that would have banned the sale of semi-automatic rifles to adults under the age of 21 earlier this month. One of those representatives, Justin Holland, touted his “A” rating from the NRA and his past support for Texas’ permitless carry and “Second Amendment sanctuary” laws before explaining that after listening to public outcry from Uvalde shooting survivors and family members he “became convinced that this small change to the law might serve as a significant roadblock to a young person (not old enough to buy tobacco or alcohol) acquiring a specific type of semiautomatic rifle intent upon using it in a destructive and illegal manner.”
The fact that Republican politicians in states like Texas and Tennessee have started to feel compelled to support certain gun-control measures despite facing blowback from gun-rights advocates and members of their own party suggests that the polling data reflects something very real happening in the political landscape. The trend is modest for now, but the polling atmosphere indicates it could keep growing.
While gun rights advocates may continue to rack up legal wins in the courtroom, if they aren’t more attentive to the public mood, they run the risk of losing serious ground in the electoral space.
That’s it for now.
I’ll talk to you all again soon.
Thanks,
Stephen Gutowski
Founder
The Reload
