Background checks associated with gun sales fell by 7.5 percent year-over-year in December and 3.5 percent for 2024.
Those are the findings of the latest analysis of the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers by the firearms industry’s trade association. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) reported the system performed 1.6 million sales-related checks in December and 15.2 million for all of 2024.
That puts December and 2024 total sales down below some pre-pandemic sales levels.
The continued sales slide has fallen through several false floors over the past four years after Americans flocked to their local gun stores at a record pace driven by uncertainty surrounding the pandemic and widespread rioting. The decline was relatively slow, but it powered through events that might have otherwise driven sales to new levels in previous years: a President dedicated to implementing new gun restrictions, the first new federal gun-control law in a generation, several major mass shootings, and a contentious presidential election featuring candidates with diametrically opposed gun positions. The sales slump also comes as Donald Trump prepares to re-enter office, which could send sales down further if his second term brings on a similar demand downturn to his first.
December’s numbers show sales have continued their downward trend in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s victory. While there have been anecdotal reports of some groups buying guns out of concern over what Trump might do as president, that buying wasn’t enough to even keep the month on pace with 2023’s levels. Similarly, while Trump supporters’ impressions of the economy have already jumped, that hasn’t yet translated into increased spending on firearms.
Still, the NSSF report indicates sales remained above the million mark for the 65th month in a row. The trade group touted that number as evidence that the market remains relatively strong compared to previous eras.
“We are proud that NSSF member companies continue to serve the American public that chooses to exercise their Second Amendment rights by the millions each month,” Joe Bartozzi, NSSF President, said in a statement. “These background check figures show strong sales and that today’s firearm manufacturers are delivering high-quality products. We are proud that our member companies continue to exceed the high standards that law-abiding Americans demand when it comes to the products that allow them to exercise their Second Amendment rights.”
The number of NICS checks in a given period is not a one-to-one analog for gun sales for several reasons. For instance, neither federal law nor most state laws require NICS checks on used gun sales between people who live in the same state and aren’t licensed gun dealers. 24 states also allow those with approved concealed carry permits to bypass NICS checks when purchasing a firearm since they have already cleared one to obtain the permit.
Still, NICS numbers are widely considered the best gauge of how many guns Americans have sold because federal law requires dealers, who are also the only ones that can sell new firearms, to conduct them during the vast majority of sales.
However, the total number of NICS checks reported each month includes more than just gun sales. Carry permit checks are lumped in with sales, including hundreds of thousands of permit re-checks run each month by some states. NSSF uses codes provided by the FBI for what type of transaction each NICS check falls into as a way of filtering out just the ones associated with gun sales, which makes their estimates a significantly more accurate gauge of sales than looking at the raw total of NICS checks reported each month.
