A pair of AK-47s on sale at a Virginia gun store
A pair of AK-47s on sale at a Virginia gun store / Stephen Gutowski

Analysis: What the TX-23 Runoff Says About the Gun Vote [Member Exclusive]

Even in defeat, gun-rights voters proved they can still make Republican candidates they target sweat.

Incumbent Congressman Tony Gonzales (R.) narrowly staved off a significant political upset Tuesday night in the primary runoff for Texas’ 23rd District. With all precincts reporting, the final vote count showed Gonzales besting his challenger, popular YouTuber and political novice Brandon Herrera, by just 407 votes.

That razor-thin margin of victory was surprising. The Gonzales campaign outspent Herrera’s by a margin of more than three to one, according to OpenSecrets, while outside spending by SuperPACs favored Gonzales 22-to-1.

What’s more, the unexpected nail-biter was primarily brought about by Second Amendment activists. Unlike other recent GOP showdowns, gun politics was the dominant theme of the race.

Gonzales, whose sprawling district includes Uvalde, was the only Texas House Republican to vote in favor of the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA), the first federal law to expand the group of people prohibited from owning guns in nearly three decades. While that vote did not cost him in his first re-election campaign that year—he comfortably defeated his general election challenger by 17 points—it did sow the seeds of conservative opposition. The Republican Party of Texas formally censured Gonzales, in part over that vote, last March.

It also prompted Herrera to throw his hat in the ring to challenge him.

Herrera, known as The AK Guy on his firearms-focused YouTube channel that boasts more than 3.43 million subscribers, launched his campaign in direct response to Gonzales’s vote supporting the BSCA. Herrera summed up the impetus for his run at a gun-rights rally in Denver in March.

“If you vote against our interests, if you vote against gun rights, if you vote against the Constitution, we will challenge you, we will primary you, and we will win,” he said. “We will take your fucking job.”

During his campaign, he ran heavily on gun issues, pledging to support “national concealed carry legislation” and to block “any effort to pass Red Flag laws or any new firearms restrictions.” His campaign website also touted his ties with advocacy groups like the National Association for Gun Rights, the Firearm Policy Coalition, and Gun Owners of America on its home page.

That Herrera’s gun-heavy strategy got him within spitting distance of unseating an incumbent in a traditionally moderate district highlights the influence gun voters still have in the party.

Of course, the race did end up being about more than simply Gonzales voting for a gun-control bill. As it progressed to the runoff, the race also became a vehicle for warring factions within the GOP to duke it out. Gonzales drew support from party leadership, like House Speaker Mike Johnson and Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Meanwhile, Herrera received endorsements from MAGA firebrands like Bob Good and Matt Gaetz, the latter of whom actually joined Herrera at campaign events.

Additionally, the fact that Herrera still lost does take some of the shine off the warning not to cross gun-rights activists. Moral victories are not the same as actual victories.

Gun-control advocates, for example, took Gonzales’ narrow win as a sign of the gun-rights movement’s waning political influence.

“Not long ago, the gun lobby had an iron grip on the GOP because of their unmatched power to influence primary elections,” Chris Harris, Giffords’ Vice President of Communications, tweeted. “That’s simply not the case anymore. Remember this next time they make threats over votes.”

However, the race did not draw the full scope of the gun-rights movement’s political mobilization and fundraising efforts. Herrera’s candidacy was backed by the National Association for Gun Rights, which contributed $7,050 to his campaign and whose SuperPAC spent $10,657 opposing Gonzales, according to OpenSecrets. Meanwhile, Gun Owners of America’s SuperPAC contributed another $47,682 in outside spending supporting Herrera.

The NRA, the largest political spender of them all, stayed out of the race. Though the scandal-plagued organization has faced dwindling membership and fundraising challenges in recent years, its political arms still dwarf every other major gun-rights group combined. It also has a track record of driving successful get-out-the-vote efforts among gun voters in a way other groups do not. 

Despite the loss, the fact that a gun-rights activist turned political upstart came within recount territory of a multi-term incumbent in a moderate district–all without the institutional backing of the NRA and opposition from Republican leadership–suggests the gun-rights movement still wields plenty of power inside the GOP.

Join For Sober, Serious Firearms Reporting & Analysis

Free Weekly Newsletter

Get the most important gun news

Reload Membership

Monthly
$ 10 a Month
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions

Reload Membership

Yearly
$ 100 a Year
  • 12 Months for Price of 10
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions
Best Deal
Created by potrace 1.16, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2019

Share

Facebook
Twitter
Reddit
Email
Created by potrace 1.16, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2019

Comments From Reload Members

One Response

  1. Jake, your analysis left out two crucial facts.

    1. Texas is an open primary state. There was a call by the Democrats (who had no run-off) for their members to show up and vote for Gonzales, lying to election officials as needed about which primary they voted in.
    2. Said election officials were happy to accept the claims… which doesn’t bode well for them detecting and stopping illegal votes in the general.

Leave a Reply

Menu

Member Login

Go back to the home page.

Enjoy a Free Preview of Member Exclusive Content! Enter Your Email for Access.

Buy a Membership for Permanent Access Today!

Reload Membership

Monthly
$ 10 a Month
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions

Reload Membership

Yearly
$ 100 a Year
  • 12 Months for Price of 10
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions
Best Deal

Back to the home page.

Sorry, only paid members have access to the full story.

Join For Sober, Serious Firearms Reporting & Analysis

Reload Membership

Monthly
$ 10 a Month
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions

Reload Membership

Yearly
$ 100 a Year
  • 12 Months for Price of 10
  • Exclusive Sunday Analysis Newsletter
  • Access to Exclusive Posts
  • Early Access to the Podcast
  • Commenting Privileges
  • Exclusive Question & Answer Sessions
Best Deal

Back to the home page.