Gun-rights groups began applying public pressure on Donald Trump this week. Will it have any effect?

On Wednesday, two gun groups expressed at least some unhappiness with the current state of gun policy early on in his second administration. The National Shooting Sports Foundation said the ATF has yet to head its call to undo the agency’s “zero tolerance” enforcement policy. Gun Owners of America, confirming the same, went further and complained Trump did not make good on his promise to undo Former President Joe Biden’s gun actions during his first week in office.

“President Trump promised gun-owning voters that Biden’s unconstitutional anti-gun disasters would ‘get ripped up and torn out’ during the first week of his Administration,” the group said in an email to supporters. “We just officially passed that milestone in the Trump-Vance Administration – and Biden’s anti-gun policies are still in effect.”

For now, those groups are still generally supportive of Trump and their communications indicate they’re hopeful he’ll still eventually do what they want. But if he doesn’t, it’s worth asking what the gun groups could realistically do about it.

As is often his style, Trump has made sweeping declarations about his support for the Second Amendment but few distinct policy promises. He helped strip all of the specific gun policy plans from the 2024 Republican platform. Outside of his commitment to undo Biden’s gun rules and a longstanding promise to sign a national reciprocity bill, which remains unlikely to make it to his desk, he didn’t say he’d do much at all.

The administration’s early moves indicate he’s focused elsewhere, even at the cost of gun-rights advocacy. Pam Bondi, Trump’s AG pick, has received pushback from gun-rights advocates over her backing of “Red Flag” laws and age restrictions on gun ownership–with little effect. His pick to head Health and Human Services, RFK Jr., once labeled the NRA a terrorist group.

He hasn’t even named a nominee to run the ATF yet, and it’s not clear who he might pick for that spot since Republicans sunk his only candidate the first time around because of his support for stricter gun laws.

What, if anything, can gun-rights activists do about that? They appear to be in a fairly weak position in the current Trump coalition.

After all, Trump unilaterally banned bumpstocks and made comments backing “Red Flag” laws that were even more aggressive than what Bondi said. None of that cost him politically. Many gun-rights advocates were upset about how Trump reacted to several major mass shootings, but Republican primary voters weren’t bothered much. He cruised to the nomination, and his opponents didn’t make much noise about his gun record. In fact, neither did the gun-rights groups themselves.

Maybe things would’ve been different if anyone had tried to force the issue. But they didn’t, and it’s hard to see why Trump wouldn’t take gun voters for granted after that.

Plus, Trump already has his Supreme Court picks to point to as a significant real-world accomplishment on gun rights. After all, his three nominees all voted in favor of the new, more challenging Second Amendment standard for gun laws set in 2022’s New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen.

A lot of gun voters seem satisfied with the combination of rhetoric, judicial appointments, and limited nature of Trump’s bumpstock ban compared to the proposals backed by Democrats.

However, Trump’s judicial appointments risk losing their luster if the Supreme Court again declines to take up an “assault weapons” ban or other case that’s long been a high priority for gun-rights advocates—or worse, if it upholds a ban. The Court is currently considering a case against Maryland’s ban, but the deadline to hear it this term has likely already passed.

Still, alternatives for gun-rights activists are pretty limited at the moment. Democrats have, by and large, drifted further and further away from them over the last 15 years or so. There was little outreach from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz during the general election beyond a surface-level attempt to relate to gun voters by talking about their own gun ownership.

The Harris Campaign may have made rhetorical overtures to gun owners, but their policy approach was among the most aggressive on gun restrictions ever. Unlike on issues like immigration, Democrats haven’t shown any impulse to move right on guns. So, gun-rights activists have nowhere else to go outside of Trump and the GOP.

That’s not a place of strength for a political movement. The best option is to hope behind-the-scenes and public pressure produce action or, at least, inaction on the policies they oppose.

The final option is to stay home during the next election day. While gun-rights activists may not have a credible alternative in Democrats, withholding their votes is still a credible threat. It’s much harder for GOP candidates to win if gun voters don’t show up.

But the midterms are two years away. For now, options are limited. Trump can, and very well may, take gun-rights activists for granted.