71 percent of Americans want stricter gun laws.
That’s bad news if you’re a gun-rights proponent. But it’s not the worst news out of the latest Associated Press poll. What’s worse is the trend that brought about that all-time high.
Between December 2013 and August 2022, the number of Americans who say they want stricter gun laws has increased by 19 points. That’s a massive swing.
To some degree, this is what you’d expect to see after a shooting as horrific as the Uvalde shooting. Support for gun-control measures normally spikes in the immediate aftermath of mass shootings. Post-Uvalde polling from Gallup and Quinnipiac University showed the same jump in support for stricter gun laws.
Those polls identified the same kind of downturn once America is further out from a major attack. The AP poll shows jumps between 2015 and 2016 as well as 2019 and 2022. But it also shows drops between 2016 and 2017 as well as 2018 and 2019.
What’s clear, though, is the overall trend has moved upward. Where the poll used to fluctuate between the mid-50s and low-60s, it now fluctuates between the high-60s and low-70s. So long as that trend continues, the potential for new federal gun laws will increase alongside it.
With the defeat of an abortion-ban ballot initiative in Kansas and Republican Marc Molinaro in the swing district of New York 19, the potential for Republican disaster is increasing. Democrats have shown a willingness to pass new gun restrictions and even bans largely on the back of strong polling indicating Americans want stricter gun laws. If they retain control of Congress and pick up a seat or two in the Senate, that could lead to the end of the Senate filibuster and a new federal “assault weapons” ban along with it.
But that’s the nightmare scenario for gun-rights advocates. As bad as the trend is, there are a few reasons to think it may not continue, and we may not see strict new gun laws anytime soon.
For one, midterm elections tend to follow a certain hype schedule. Initially, the party out of power appears to have a chance at historic gains. Then, as the election draws closer, things tend to tighten up, and people begin to wonder if the party in power might be able to turn things around. Eventually, things tend to settle where the out-of-power party gains enough seats to retake at least one house of Congress, even if it’s not as many seats as seemed possible a few months earlier.
It certainly feels like we’re in the middle of that cycle right now. There are exceptions to the rules, but basic fundamentals still favor Republicans taking back at least the House of Representatives. They only need to flip five seats to do it, and President Joe Biden remains historically unpopular going into the midterm season.
Plus, the AP poll shows most Americans also want to protect gun rights and the ability of people to defend themselves with firearms. It shows they are more open to restricting access to guns for people who are shown to be a threat to themselves or others, such as the mentally ill or those convicted of domestic violence, than they are to categorical gun bans. While the poll found an increase in support for a ban on AR-15s, the first I’ve seen since the Uvalde massacre, that support is still 26 points lower than support for restricting those with mental illnesses.
The breakdown in how much stricter people want gun laws to be is further evidence of this. While support for more stringent gun laws is at an all-time high in the poll, support for “much stricter” gun laws is actually down five points from 2018. The number of people saying they want “somewhat stricter” laws is at an all-time high.
It’s precisely those people Republicans were hoping to appeal to when they supported the bi-partisan gun bill in June.
“We’ve lost ground in suburban areas. We pretty much own rural and small-town America. And I think this is a sensible solution to the problem before us, which is school safety and mental health,” McConnell told Politico of the decision in June. “I hope it will be viewed favorably by voters in the suburbs that we need to regain in order to hopefully be in the majority next year.”
The first new federal gun restrictions in a generation may bring down the level of support for further restrictions. The law does not include the kind of categorical bans on types of guns Americans can own but does extend domestic violence prohibitions to more people, among other reforms. It may satiate some of the demand for “somewhat stricter” gun laws.
Plus, the poll also shows growth in gun ownership. The number of people reporting a gun in the home climbed 7 points since 2019. A previous AP poll indicates those new gun owners may be even less receptive to stricter gun-control laws. So, as more people buy guns and change their attitude toward ownership, support for more gun restrictions could wane.
But that clearly hasn’t taken effect in polling yet. And gun-rights advocates should recognize they may not be able to rely on it as an inevitability. Instead, they will likely have to be more proactive to convince the public new gun restrictions are not the answer to mass shootings.
6 Responses
sed ‘s/wain/wane’
That aside, I am a bit concerned regarding the fundamental premise. Although I understand the realpolitik of it.
There have been instances, in other countries and domestically, that “the majority of the population” supports untoward behavior — such as violent acts or even enslavement — towards minorities. Ethnic, religious, or on this case political.
Thankfully the US was founded by such minorities (Protestant) with the idea of “majority rule with protections for minorities”. And hard guardrails around certain rights. Such as said involuntary servitude, or religious freedom.
I’m a bit concerned those guardrails aren’t engaging for this *particular* right. Else we wouldn’t have to worry about the political moods of the day banning certain religions.
I think the federal courts will put increasing limits on what kind of gun restrictions are allowed under the Second Amendment. But that doesn’t fix the issue of public opinion. Gun-rights advocates ought to try and persuade people rather than just rely on the courts to backstop their rights.
I agree in *practice*, since constitutional amendments are at the end of the day driven by public sentiment, and can bring back everything I just mentioned “legally”.
But given artificial culturally-manipulating laws — like California’s recent ban on youth shooting sports, or outright de-facto bans on public carry, ownership, and practice of the right — I am having a hard time agreeing in *principle*.
Especially when certain courts, Ninth Circuit especially, *aren’t* backstopping anything regarding this right (51-0 record). A free market of ideas only works if the market is actually free. Thus my original argument.
Regardless I agree with your point functionally, and find the analysis compelling. Thank you for your enlightening analysis!
Thanks. I think your point of view has a lot of validity to it, and I’m glad you brought up this critique.
What this shows is so simple, it seems to evade the question: What gun control laws do Americans want? What specifically, do they want controlled? To claim that Americans support gun control and NOT define it, is just lazy use of generalizations that is nothing more than propaganda and scare tactics. Gutowski is better than that!
If the question is asked of the People: what do you want to control? The answer will invariably be, felony misuse of firearms and the mentally ill having access to firearms. If it is then pointed out that those laws already exist but are not being enforced, prosecuted and adjudicated, the demand for more gun control laws goes out the window.
Yes, I addressed the individual policy polling in the piece. Bans on individuals owning guns who’ve demonstrated they are a threat to themselves or others are much more popular than categorical gun bans and that matters quite a lot. However, those sorts of bans and other restrictions most gun-rights advocates oppose, such as age-based gun bans, are still pretty popular overall.
For instance AR bans have seen a decrease in support during most post-Uvalde polling (with this AP poll being the exception), but the policy still has majority support in all but one poll.
I agree that the trend doesn’t mean that black helicopters are going to start defending on our homes tomorrow and agents are going to seize our guns. But I think the more Americans want stricter gun laws, the more likely it is they will get them. And those new laws will probably do a lot more than just enforce the restrictions already on the books.
So, we certainly shouldn’t exaggerate the possible consequences of this trend. But I do think it’s a trend gun-rights advocates should be aware of and consider ways of addressing it.
Of course, one way of addressing the trend is to better enforce the current prohibitions at the state and federal level. If greater enforcement of current laws successfully brings down the murder rate or prevents more mass shootings, it will probably alleviate some of the demand for new gun restrictions. So, I think you make a strong point there.